July 2025 Insights

Fake It Until You Replace It

Initially met with significant scepticism by both consumers and businesses, lab-grown diamonds have proven the doubters wrong, growing from a low single-digit share of the global market in 2020 to around 20% of the volume today. What takes the earth a billion years to create can now be produced in a lab in just weeks, and at a fraction of the cost. Concerns about quality were central to the early doubts, but these too have been dispelled by the exponential improvements in production standards and output quality.

Even a major industry player such as De Beers has acknowledged that lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from natural ones. The core quality of lab-grown diamonds has advanced to the point where they are now marketed as a sustainable, high-quality alternative. De Beers has noted that their “low production cost and relative abundance” have reshaped market dynamics.

While lab-grown diamonds are a legal alternative to natural ones, luxury brands also face competition from illegal counterfeits. With the counterfeits market currently valued at $464 billion and projected to reach $1.67 trillion within five years, it remains incredibly lucrative and comfortably exceeds the total size of the authentic luxury market, which stands at $363 billion. Global luxury companies have expressed concerns about weaker consumer demand in the US and macroeconomic challenges in China. However, there is an ongoing debate about how much worth aspirational consumers attach to brand value. Hermès and Richemont, known for their portfolios of ultra-luxury brands, have demonstrated greater resilience amid broader weakness in the luxury sector. In contrast, companies such as LVMH and Burberry, whose brands are more closely associated with aspirational consumers, have faced greater challenges. Counterfeits pose a greater threat to this segment of the market, as consumers feeling the economic pinch may view the quality and price of a counterfeit as sufficient to justify not purchasing the genuine product.

High Street holds Richemont and LVMH (indirectly through ownership of Christian Dior), and we are assessing if the counterfeit threat warrants further action.

Unless otherwise stated, all performance and statistical figures provided in this article have been pulled from Bloomberg by the High Street Asset Management Research Team on 28 July 2025 and all the images provided in this article have been sourced from FreePik and have been used in line with their Acceptable Use Policy. The contents of our newsletters are frequently sourced from or verified through our various product providers and other third parties. Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the newsletter, it should not be construed as financial advice as defined in the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act. Links are provided to third-party websites for convenience only. High Street Asset Management (Pty) Ltd cannot accept responsibility and does not endorse any information contained on a third-party site. For our full disclaimer, please see: https://hsam.co.za/legal/.

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