October 2025 Insights

Beneath the Surface

It has been a remarkable year for JSE investors. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index has returned 35%, on track for its first annual return above 30% since 2009. At first glance, such a strong rally might suggest a broad resurgence in the South African economy, boosting the earnings of local companies and driving share prices higher.

But dig a little deeper, and the picture looks very different. Companies whose earnings are closely tied to the domestic economy, the so-called ‘SA Inc’ cohort, have largely been left behind. Instead, the market’s gains have been concentrated in a handful of precious metal miners, buoyed by soaring gold and platinum prices, alongside strong performance from Prosus/Naspers.

By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the JSE’s leaderboard made the divide clear: nine of the ten best-performing shares were mining companies, with Blue Label the lone outlier. Every one of them had more than doubled in value. Sibanye-Stillwater topped the list, up an incredible 229%, followed by Gold Fields (+195%) and DRDGold (+191%).

Even when you widen the lens to the top 20, locally focused names are rare. Only four could be classified as ‘SA Inc’ stocks – all telecoms: Blue Label, Telkom, MTN, and Vodacom. And even then, MTN and Vodacom earn a huge chunk of their revenue outside South Africa.

On the flip side, ‘SA Inc’ companies dominate the list of the market’s worst performers, with seven of the ten worst-performing shares falling into this category. Additionally, retailers – long seen as bellwethers for the local economy – make up six of the bottom 20 performers. The contrast is clear: while the JSE is soaring, most South African-focused companies haven’t shared in the rally.

The past decade helps put this year’s rally into perspective. While the JSE All Share Index has delivered a solid 11.8% annualised return, most of the gains have come from the resources sector and the index heavyweights Naspers and Prosus. Domestically focused sectors like retail, industrials, and property haven’t even kept pace with inflation, with only financials showing a positive real return.

In short, most of the JSE’s strength in recent history has been driven by global commodities and internationally focused businesses, while South Africa–centric companies have struggled amid weak GDP growth, economic headwinds, and political uncertainty. While past returns are not indicative of future performance, a meaningful turnaround in ‘SA Inc’ stocks will likely depend on clearer policy, stronger domestic growth, and improved economic confidence.

Unless otherwise stated, all performance and statistical figures provided in this article have been pulled from Bloomberg by the High Street Asset Management Research Team on 29 October 2025 and all the images provided in this article have been sourced from FreePik and have been used in line with their Acceptable Use Policy. The contents of our newsletters are frequently sourced from or verified through our various product providers and other third parties. Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in the newsletter, it should not be construed as financial advice as defined in the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act. Links are provided to third-party websites for convenience only. High Street Asset Management (Pty) Ltd cannot accept responsibility and does not endorse any information contained on a third-party site. For our full disclaimer, please see: https://hsam.co.za/legal/.